Konsensus vuotaa: hirveää propagandaa

Khilyuk L. F., Chilingar G. V. (2006): On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?, Environmental Geology, 50(6), 899-910.

Conclusions

The writers identified and described the global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: solar irradiation as a dominant energy supplier to the atmosphere (and hydrosphere); outgassing as a dominant gaseous matter supplier to the atmosphere (and hydrosphere); and microbial activities at the interface of the lithosphere and atmosphere. The scope and extent of these processes are 4–5 orders of magnitude greater than the corresponding anthropogenic impacts on the Earth’s climate (such as heating and emission of the greenhouse gases).

Inspection of the global atmospheric temperature changes during the last 1,000 years (Fig. 11) shows that the global average temperature dropped about 2°C over the last millennium. This means that we live in the cooling geologic epoch (which comprises most of the Holocene), and the global warming observed during the latest 150 years is just a short episode in the geologic history. The current global warming is most likely a combined effect of increased solar and tectonic activities and cannot be attributed to the increased anthropogenic impact on the atmosphere. Humans may be responsible for less than 0.01°C (of approximately 0.56°C (1°F) total average atmospheric heating during the last century) (Khilyuk and Chilingar 2003, 2004).

The global natural processes drive the Earth’s climate: “Climate will change, either warmer or colder, over many scales of time, with or without human interference” (Gerhard 2004). Any attempts to mitigate undesirable climatic changes using restrictive regulations are condemned to failure, because the global natural forces are at least 4–5 orders of magnitude greater than available human controls. In addition, application of these controls will lead to catastrophic economic consequences. Estimates show that since its inception in February 2005, the Kyoto Protocol has cost about $50 billion (about $10 billion a month) supposedly averting about 0.0005°C of warming by the year 2050. Thus, the Kyoto Protocol is a good example of how to achieve the minimum results with the maximum efforts (and sacrifices). Impact of available human controls will be negligible in comparison with the global forces of nature. Thus, the attempts to alter the occurring global climatic changes (and drastic measures prescribed by the Kyoto Protocol) have to be abandoned as meaningless and harmful. Instead, moral and professional obligation of all responsible scientists and politicians is to minimize potential human misery resulting from oncoming global climatic changes.

[Via World Climate Report]